With coronavirus still rampant, it’s remains likely that 2020 won’t look like prior elections. Primaries are giving us a taste of what’s to come: increased interest in vote-by-mail (VBM), pressure to put safeguards in place to make in-person voting safer, and confusion, rule changes, and court challenges down to the wire.
This is Part 2 of our series on COVID-19’s impact on the 2020 election. In Part 1 (LINK), we explored a few big questions about election timing, VBM and in-person voting, and who’s in charge (states or the Feds). In this post, we’ll dig into the status of absentee balloting in nine key battleground states, and how to boost VBM in November.
Our key takeaway is that 7/9 of the key states we analyzed have few if any restrictions on VBM. That means the challenge for voting rights advocates is to ensure citizens in those states have all the access, education, and logistical support they need to cast ballots in November.
[If you don’t already, please subscribe to our blog updates, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook – we are planning several more posts about COVID-19, as well as additional content about specific races and regions as we get closer to Election Day.]
In this post:
VBM in nine key battleground states
How you can help support VBM
Coda: Where to get more state-level election info
1. VBM in nine key battleground states
State voting rules are complicated and changing rapidly, but thankfully, two new resources provide a great state-by-state rundown – one by the Brennan Center, and the other by the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. We’ve described more about these resources at the bottom of this post; please check them out if you want more details on the situation in specific states.
From these resources, it’s clear that there will be wide disparities across the country in voting access in 2020. VBM is the most obvious example: 16 states require an excuse to obtain an absentee ballot for the general election, although seven of these have already added concern about contracting COVID-19 to their lists of allowed reasons for VBM, at least for upcoming votes in the spring and summer.
Although we care about voting access everywhere, we’re going to focus here on nine states that are likely to be most important for determining the Presidency and/or Senate control. (These are the same states that we focused on for our GOTV analysis a few months ago.) We’ll focus specifically on VBM, because that’s where we have the most visibility about how things will look this year. (It’s still too early to say how most states are going to handle in-person voting in November.)
As of April 27, those nine states fall into three buckets:
Broad access to VBM – Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
Four states on our list have no-excuse VBM for all elections, online absentee ballot requests, and minimal barriers for requesting or returning mail-in ballots. AZ has a very VBM-savvy population (79% in 2018), whereas FL has a smaller fraction (31%) that is accustomed to mail-in voting. Only 6% of WI voters cast mail-in ballots in 2018, but that number rose to 25% in April’s primary, so it’s likely that awareness has increased dramatically. PA just adopted no-excuse VBM in 2019, so it probably has the biggest awareness gap among these four states.
Some access to VBM – Georgia, Michigan, Ohio
GA, MI, and OH all have no-excuse VBM, but voters are required to submit paper applications for absentee ballots; there is no on-line process. GA has mailed absentee ballot applications to all “active” voters for the primaries, which is particularly important given the state’s meager 6% VBM rate in 2018. MI, where 24% of voters cast mail-in ballots in 2018, has also mailed VBM applications to all registered voters. In OH (21% VBM in 2018), registered voters will get a mailing on how to get absentee applications, but the state isn’t sending the applications themselves.
Limited access to VBM – North Carolina, Texas
The situation is far worse in NC and TX. NC has no-excuse VBM, but imposes a huge hassle on VBM: absentee ballot envelopes need to be signed by two adult witnesses or officially notarized. This may explain why only 3% of NC voters cast mail-in ballots in 2018 – and it also creates a huge barrier for prospective absentee voters if the risk of COVID-19 persists in the fall.
Of the nine states we analyzed, TX is the only one that explicitly requires an excuse to get an absentee ballot. Unless you’re ill, disabled, pregnant, over 65, incarcerated, or absent from your county or municipality, you need to vote in person. As of now, it’s unclear if TX will add fear of COVID-19 infection to its list of allowed excuses.
2. How you can help support VBM
We think there are three things you can do to help boost VBM in the upcoming COVID-19 election in key states.
1. Support state groups working on VBM awareness, education, and advocacy: Except for AZ, fewer than 1/3 of voters in each of these key battlegrounds cast mail-in ballots in 2018. That means most voters are accustomed to in-person balloting, and may be confused by the new rules for 2020 — and states vary widely in terms of how much effort they’re devoting to getting the word out. Most states’ Democratic Party organizations are mounting concerted efforts to spread the word about absentee ballots via education, mailings, phone hotlines, etc., as well as pushing their states to broaden VBM outreach and access.
2. Support Democratic candidates in competitive races: Candidates in battleground states with no-excuse VBM have told us that they’re devoting tons of effort to boosting absentee voting rates through direct mailing, phone and text banking, educational videos, and other resources. We made a one-click ActBlue slate so you can contribute to Dems in the Senate and Governor race(s) in each of these states, plus the closest House races. Where there are still Dem primaries pending, donations will go to “nominee funds” that will be released once the candidate is determined. (These donations go straight through ActBlue; we don’t take a penny.)
3. Support regional and national efforts to boost VBM access: Several groups are highly focused on VBM for 2020. Not only are they supporting education and outreach, but they’re also directly advising state election officials about how to adjust their policies and processes to ensure VBM goes smoothly in 2020.
4. Donate your time to voter outreach: Because VBM will be a bit more of a hassle than many voters are used to, every little nudge will make a difference. We’re fans of groups that help individual citizens boost voting rates in key states — check them out, and get involved!
5. Help boost VBM in “overlooked” populations: More in 2020 than ever, it’s likely that certain citizens will slip through the cracks and face challenges casting ballots. We are actively searching for groups that are helping boost VBM for non-digital / offline folks, non-native English speakers, and other marginalized groups. If you know of any organizations that focus on these populations in key battleground states, please let us know!
3. Coda: Where to get more state-level election info
New resources from the Brennan Center and the Lawyers’ Committee are great one-stop shops for getting details on particular states’ voting rules – please check them out if you’re interested:
The Brennan Center’s voting info site has an easy-to-read table of how each state fares on six key pandemic election parameters: no-excuse VBM; online ballot requests; vote centers on Election Day; in-person early or absentee voting; online registration; and same-day registration. It also lists the percent of 2018 ballots that were cast by mail in each state.
The Lawyers’ Committee voting info site provides key state-by-state info for 2020 regarding key dates for elections, absentee ballot request and submission, and early voting; as well as the rules governing obtaining and verifying mail-in ballots. Its “state election laws overview by state” is particularly well annotated with the dates of real-time changes.
Quick caveat: Things are changing rapidly at the state level, so it’s important to stay up-to-date, and confirm key info with Secretary of State offices. Both of these resources appear to have been updated as of April 27th, and we noted only minor discrepancies between them.
Image by Emma Winowiecki of Michigan Radio.